Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016102 0.018228 0.020531 0.023213 0.026252 0.029588 0.033530
2025-08-31 0.012535 0.015412 0.018795 0.023072 0.028339 0.034621 0.042694
2025-09-07 0.010847 0.014109 0.018169 0.023597 0.030677 0.039616 0.051787
2025-09-14 0.009164 0.012481 0.016801 0.022848 0.031115 0.042049 0.057660
2025-09-21 0.008040 0.011394 0.015939 0.022560 0.031986 0.044968 0.064284
2025-09-28 0.007017 0.010302 0.014913 0.021874 0.032151 0.046827 0.069484
2025-10-05 0.006618 0.010039 0.014999 0.022738 0.034554 0.052000 0.079872
2025-10-12 0.006192 0.009681 0.014893 0.023274 0.036477 0.056584 0.089744
2025-10-19 0.005837 0.009385 0.014839 0.023862 0.038496 0.061439 0.100421
2025-10-26 0.005364 0.008856 0.014366 0.023726 0.039329 0.064466 0.108387
2025-11-02 0.004979 0.008429 0.014009 0.023732 0.040365 0.067866 0.117216
2025-11-09 0.004549 0.007884 0.013408 0.023267 0.040553 0.069844 0.123753
2025-11-16 0.004281 0.007600 0.013231 0.023527 0.042037 0.074195 0.134921
2025-11-23 0.003966 0.007207 0.012832 0.023364 0.042761 0.077286 0.144130
2025-11-30 0.003793 0.007047 0.012827 0.023897 0.044771 0.082810 0.158267
2025-12-07 0.003446 0.006541 0.012153 0.023138 0.044317 0.083776 0.163868
2025-12-14 0.003199 0.006198 0.011750 0.022846 0.044704 0.086321 0.172698
2025-12-21 0.002924 0.005778 0.011165 0.022151 0.044247 0.087195 0.178274
2025-12-28 0.002864 0.005773 0.011373 0.023026 0.046956 0.094449 0.197363
2026-01-04 0.002769 0.005688 0.011416 0.023570 0.049034 0.100603 0.214707
2026-01-11 0.002684 0.005618 0.011483 0.024165 0.051263 0.107229 0.233618
2026-01-18 0.002530 0.005390 0.011210 0.024027 0.051934 0.110668 0.245932
2026-01-25 0.002402 0.005206 0.011014 0.024033 0.052907 0.114812 0.260147